Does +EV Betting Actually Work? We Graded 82,000 Picks to Find Out
Everyone in sports betting claims an edge. Almost no one shows their full record. We do, with wins and losses shown and publication detail tied to the underlying evidence. So we pulled the whole dataset and ran the honest numbers on whether positive-expected-value betting actually works.
Snapshot: June 2026 · 84,376 distinct picks graded since December 5, 2025 (171,806 total across 30+ books).
The honest answer: it depends, and we publish the receipts
Across 79,564 decided picks, the model won 56.1% of the time for a +5.32% return on investment and +4,230 units of profit. For context, you need to win about 52.4% at standard -110 pricing just to break even, so 56.1% is a meaningful, sustained edge over a large sample. And it isn’t a stale early run: over the last 90 days, the model still produced 53.6% / +4.32% ROI across 32,404 picks.
The edge lives in UNDERs, and we show the OVERs that lost
Prop lines are shaded toward the OVER because casual money loves big numbers. That bias underprices UNDERs, and the data shows it starkly. Note we’re publishing the losing side too, that’s the point.
| Market | Decided | Win rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNDER | 46,905 | 59.3% | +10.81% |
| OVER | 32,349 | 51.8% | −2.60% |
By sport, including where we’re only breaking even
| Sport | Decided | Win rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soccer | 3,403 | 63.4% | +20.8% |
| NHL | 9,136 | 62.2% | +16.4% |
| Tennis | 5,007 | 57.6% | +12.8% |
| WNBA | 798 | 58.3% | +11.3% |
| NBA | 45,713 | 55.1% | +2.2% |
| MLB | 10,115 | 50.6% | -0.1% |
MLB sits at roughly breakeven and we’re not going to pretend otherwise, that honesty is exactly why you can trust the sports that are winning. See the always-current numbers on the public track record.
Methodology (the part most "records" skip)
- Distinct picks, not inflated counts. The same pick can appear across all 30+ books; we de-duplicate to one distinct pick so coverage doesn’t fake a bigger sample or win rate.
- Neutral pricing. ROI uses a representative price, not the best-available line, so the return isn’t cherry-picked upward.
- Publication and grading evidence. The studied sample includes graded wins and losses, with publication detail represented according to the underlying record.
- Studied scope. This analysis uses the full graded sample defined for the study period beginning Dec 5, 2025, rather than a hand-selected subset.
- Honest limits. This is a ~6-month window, results vary by sport, and no edge removes the variance of any single bet.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does +EV betting actually work?
In this specific studied sample it did: across 82,000+ picks graded in public from December 2025 through July 2026, the model won 56.1% of decided bets for a +5.32% ROI. That is a historical record of one sample, not a promise. Results varied widely by sport and market, breakeven at typical DFS payouts is about 54.3%, and no past record guarantees future profit on any play.
How do you know these numbers aren’t cherry-picked?
For this studied sample, publication and grading evidence is included according to the underlying record. This study counts de-duplicated distinct picks (not the same pick inflated across 30+ books) at a neutral price (not the best available), and it shows the losing cuts, OVERs lost money and MLB was roughly breakeven. We publish the misses, not just the hits.
Why are UNDER bets so much more profitable?
Sportsbook prop lines are systematically shaded toward the OVER, because casual bettors love betting big numbers and "yes" outcomes. That public bias leaves UNDERs underpriced. Our data shows it clearly: UNDERs hit 59.3% for +10.81% ROI while OVERs lost at −2.60%.
What are the limits of this study?
It is one sample from one model over one stretch of the calendar. Sport mix, market mix, and book pricing all changed during the window, and they keep changing. Treat the numbers as a description of what happened, verified against the public ledger, not as a projection of what happens next.
See it live, not in a screenshot
The full public record updates every day. Browse it, try the free tools, or see today’s +EV picks.