MLB Player Props
Modeled +EV MLB prop picks across dozens of sportsbooks, with board freshness shown in the product. Current picks and older historical model rows are shown separately.
Today's Top +EV MLB Props
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Best Book | EV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Edman | Total Bases | 1.5 | 🔒 | DABBLE | +10.8% |
| Will Smith | Total Bases | 1.5 | 🔒 | DABBLE | +9.9% |
MLB Prop Performance, All-Time Record
| Prop Type | Picks | Win Rate | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Bases | 5676 | 60.1% | +589.7u |
| Hits | 4209 | 56.6% | +274.8u |
| Runs | 2723 | 54.5% | +112.0u |
| Singles | 2378 | 54.3% | +124.5u |
| Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1731 | 52.9% | +23.2u |
| RBIs | 1566 | 62.5% | +209.2u |
| Walks | 1334 | 67.2% | +364.1u |
| Batter Strikeouts | 1079 | 53.8% | -34.2u |
| YRFI | 194 | 59.8% | +125.0u |
| Outs Recorded | 168 | 48.2% | -16.1u |
| Batter Walks | 168 | 68.5% | +36.3u |
| Pitcher Outs Recorded | 127 | 44.9% | -18.3u |
How We Find +EV MLB Props
Our MLB model pulls from Statcast (exit velo, barrel rate, xwOBA), FanGraphs (wRC+, FIP), park factors split by handedness, weather, and dedicated XGBoost classifiers for HR (AUC 0.997 on 149K gamelogs) and pitcher strikeouts. We compare model probability with available lines across dozens of sportsbooks. The board exposes freshness so you can judge how current the comparison is. A positive gap is a modeled edge, not a guarantee. See newer fully tracked results and older historical context separately on Performance.
Browse all our free tools, see the full MLB player history, or jump straight to today's live +EV picks.
MLB Prop Betting Strategy
- Pitcher strikeout props are the most predictable MLB market, high-K starters (Cole, Skubal) vs high-K-rate lineups are where edges live.
- Weather + park factors swing HR probability 10-25%. Always check 30 minutes before first pitch.
- Hitter splits matter: lefty vs RHP with high fly-ball rate is the canonical HR setup.
- Treat hits and total-bases markets from the current model and price rather than assuming one side remains systematically mispriced.
- NRFI is a separate game-level market whose value depends on the current model probability and available price.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best MLB player props to bet?
Pitcher strikeout and home-run markets behave very differently in variance and pricing. Use the current model probability and actual offered price rather than treating one stat type as permanently best.
How do weather and ballpark affect MLB props?
Wind out adds 5-10% HR rate; temperature adds ~2% per 10°F over 70°F. Coors and Yankee Stadium are the most HR-friendly; Petco and Oracle the most pitcher-friendly. Our model bakes these in.
Which sportsbooks have the best MLB prop pricing?
Pricing varies by market and moment. Compare the actual line and payout across available venues rather than assuming one sportsbook or pick’em platform is permanently sharpest or softest.
How does the model handle starting pitcher changes?
Starting-pitcher context is part of the MLB workflow. The board exposes current availability and freshness rather than promising a fixed refresh interval.
What about NRFI/YRFI props?
NRFI (no run first inning) has its own model, Poisson-based with starter K rates and lineup contact rates. We surface NRFI/YRFI separately on the alt-markets page.
Also tracking
See every +EV MLB pick today
Current modeled +EV picks across dozens of books. Sport-specific models, transparent grading, no cherry-picking.