| Tool | Graded | Win rate | Result | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DFS Player Props In-sample. Includes off-season NBA/NHL. | 65,342 graded today | 56.3% | +5.5% ROI ROI | Live · graded | |
Sportsbook Picks Best-available odds across books; single-book reality is lower. CLV not yet wired. | 20,246 graded today | 53.7% | +4.8% ROI ROI (best odds) | Live · graded | |
Sharp Money Published record since 2026-06-10, deduped to one pick per game, longshots fenced. What was actually sent to Discord — no tier filter. Past results don't guarantee future. | 1,563 graded today | 52.3% | +1.2% ROI ROI (published core) | Profitable | |
First-Inning NRFI / YRFI Win-rate only — no payout in the ledger, so no ROI is claimed. | 259 3d ago | 57.5% | 58% win rate Win rate | Live · graded | |
Arbitrage Distinct realizable opportunities (re-detections deduped; palpable-error/>9% rows excluded). Locked spread guaranteed only if both legs fill. | 3,197 2d ago | — | +1.5% avg spread Avg locked spread | Live · graded | |
Home Run Model Overconfident at long odds — not +EV as priced. Recalibrating. | 1,103 26d ago | 16.0% | -12% ROI ROI | Not +EV | |
Pitcher Strikeouts Losing as displayed; claimed edge is anti-correlated with outcome. | 576 graded today | 50.5% | -3% ROI ROI | Not +EV | |
Middles Distinct opportunities; legs move before both fill. Discovery tool, net-negative. | 2,977 graded today | 22.6% | 38.8% ROI ROI | Not +EV | |
Prediction-Market Edge Paper-traded. Clean cohort only: priced >= 0.40 and locked pre-game (2065 graded). Realized -0.98% ROI — a 66.2% win rate at these prices needs 66.6% just to break even after fees. The lifetime number you may have seen was a longshot artifact from a price band the board no longer surfaces, plus rows locked in-play before the 2026-07-06 clock fix. No proven edge yet. | 2,065 graded today | 66.2% | Experimental Experimental | Experimental |
Every pick graded — wins and losses. Historical and in-sample; past results don't guarantee future performance. 21+.
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Yes. Every pick is graded in public, wins and losses, and nothing is deleted. The full record on this page is sortable by sport, tool, and book.
More than 82,000 player-prop model calls, each graded against the official box score and published here.
It is public and checkable, every graded pick lists the player, line, side, and the real result against the box score, so anyone can verify it independently.
No. Past results never guarantee future performance. The value is a transparent, auditable process and tools, not a promise. 21+.