The public record
85,062
picks graded — wins and losses
Across every tool. In-sample, nothing hidden.
9
tools
5
live +ROI records
Daily
updated

Honest scorecard

Tap a tool for the full record
ToolGradedWin rateResultStatus
DFS Player Props
In-sample. Includes off-season NBA/NHL.
61,396
graded today
56.1%+4.8% ROI
ROI
Live · graded
Sportsbook Picks
Best-available odds across books; single-book reality is lower. CLV not yet wired.
14,879
graded today
53.1%+6.9% ROI
ROI (best odds)
Live · graded
Sharp Money
Published record since 2026-06-10, deduped to one pick per game, longshots fenced. What was actually sent to Discord — no tier filter. Past results don't guarantee future.
1,034
graded today
54.6%+1.5% ROI
ROI (published core)
Profitable
First-Inning NRFI / YRFI
Win-rate only — no payout in the ledger, so no ROI is claimed.
257
graded today
57.2%57% win rate
Win rate
Live · graded
Arbitrage
Distinct realizable opportunities (re-detections deduped; palpable-error/>9% rows excluded). Locked spread guaranteed only if both legs fill.
2,518
graded today
+1.5% avg spread
Avg locked spread
Live · graded
Home Run Model
Overconfident at long odds — not +EV as priced. Recalibrating.
1,034
graded today
16.3%-10% ROI
ROI
Not +EV
Pitcher Strikeouts
Losing as displayed; claimed edge is anti-correlated with outcome.
404
graded today
51.2%-6% ROI
ROI
Not +EV
Middles
Distinct opportunities; legs move before both fill. Discovery tool, net-negative.
2,643
graded today
25.3%-2.8% ROI
ROI
Not +EV
Prediction-Market Edge
Paper-traded, young sample. Lifetime ROI is a longshot artifact; the forward board now gates out sub-0.40 longshots + the no-edge PM-US lines. No proven edge yet.
897
graded today
68.2%Experimental
Experimental
Experimental

Every pick graded — wins and losses. Historical and in-sample; past results don't guarantee future performance. 21+.

How we grade

Every pick, win or loss
Picks are timestamped before the game and graded against the box score. Losses stay on the record — we never delete a miss.
Honest math
ROI is payout-aware and de-duped to one row per prop. Where a number is best-case (line-shopped) or modeled, we say so.
Losers shown as losers
Tools that aren’t profitable yet live in “Still Proving” — in red. Transparency is the product, not a tagline.
In-sample, stated plainly
These are historical results, not a promise. Past performance doesn’t guarantee the future. 21+.

Frequently asked questions

Does Turtle +EV show its losing picks?

Yes. Every pick is graded in public — wins and losses — and nothing is deleted. The full record on this page is sortable by sport, tool, and book.

How many picks has Turtle +EV graded?

More than 82,000 player-prop model calls, each graded against the official box score and published here.

Is the record audited?

It is public and checkable — every graded pick lists the player, line, side, and the real result against the box score, so anyone can verify it independently.

Does a good record guarantee future profit?

No. Past results never guarantee future performance. The value is a transparent, auditable process and tools — not a promise. 21+.

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