Soccer Player Props
Modeled +EV Soccer prop picks across dozens of sportsbooks, with board freshness shown in the product. Current picks and older historical model rows are shown separately.
Today's Top +EV Soccer Props
Soccer Prop Performance, All-Time Record
| Prop Type | Picks | Win Rate | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 2843 | 71.7% | +941.0u |
| Shots On Target | 1654 | 58.9% | +185.3u |
| Passes | 1308 | 62.0% | +210.3u |
| Fouls | 1264 | 68.8% | +421.9u |
| Tackles | 313 | 54.0% | +0.7u |
| Goals | 209 | 53.1% | +13.1u |
| Goals+Assists | 112 | 50.9% | +0.6u |
| Dribbles | 108 | 90.7% | +72.1u |
| Crosses | 46 | 82.6% | +23.9u |
| Assists | 22 | 59.1% | +5.9u |
How We Find +EV Soccer Props
Our soccer model pulls from API-Football (full season stats across 14 leagues including Big 5 + UCL/UEL + MLS + Liga MX), Poisson-based shot/SOT/goals model, and an XGBoost win/loss classifier (AUC 0.781) trained on 685K match records. We compare model probability with available lines across dozens of sportsbooks. The board exposes freshness so you can judge how current the comparison is. A positive gap is a modeled edge, not a guarantee. See newer fully tracked results and older historical context separately on Performance.
Browse all our free tools, see the full Soccer player history, or jump straight to today's live +EV picks.
Soccer Prop Betting Strategy
- Shots on Target (SOT) UNDER was the strongest slice in older soccer model history. That retrospective result is context, not evidence that the next pick will win.
- Avoid all OVER markets in soccer, backtest data shows systematic overprice across leagues.
- Tackles and fouls props have weather-dependent variance; rain games push UNDERs.
- Compare pick’em and sportsbook soccer pricing directly; neither product type should be assumed permanently softer.
- International and club competitions can have different market depth and movement; evaluate the live price rather than assuming a fixed timing advantage.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best soccer player props to bet?
Older history showed stronger results for some Shots on Target UNDER slices. That is retrospective context, not a forecast; current recommendations must stand on their own model and price.
Which leagues do you cover?
Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, MLS, Liga MX, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, Süper Lig, Championship, plus UEFA Champions League / Europa League / Conference League.
How does the model handle injuries?
Injury and lineup availability changes as kickoff approaches. The board uses available lineup context and exposes freshness rather than promising a fixed update interval.
Why are UNDERs the focus?
Older soccer model history showed weaker OVER results, so the current product focuses on UNDERs. Performance keeps that older context separate from newer fully tracked results.
What about MLS and Liga MX?
Both are covered. MLS pricing tends to be softer than European leagues, extra value especially on shots and SOT props.
Also tracking
See every +EV Soccer pick today
Current modeled +EV picks across dozens of books. Sport-specific models, transparent grading, no cherry-picking.