Soccer Player Props
+EV Soccer prop picks across 30+ sportsbooks, refreshed every 2 minutes. Every pick graded publicly. Below: today's top picks, all-time performance, and how our model finds the edge.
Today's Top +EV Soccer Props
Soccer Prop Performance, All-Time Record
| Prop Type | Picks | Win Rate | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 1901 | 75.2% | +731.1u |
| Shots On Target | 1419 | 59.9% | +176.4u |
| Fouls | 1198 | 68.6% | +397.4u |
| Passes | 1085 | 63.3% | +202.7u |
| Tackles | 287 | 55.7% | +10.2u |
| Goals | 196 | 53.1% | +12.3u |
| Goals+Assists | 85 | 48.2% | -3.0u |
| Dribbles | 85 | 88.2% | +52.8u |
| Crosses | 45 | 82.2% | +23.1u |
| Assists | 22 | 59.1% | +5.9u |
How We Find +EV Soccer Props
Our soccer model pulls from API-Football (full season stats across 14 leagues including Big 5 + UCL/UEL + MLS + Liga MX), Poisson-based shot/SOT/goals model, and an XGBoost win/loss classifier (AUC 0.781) trained on 685K match records. We compare independent probability against lines from 30+ sportsbooks every 2 minutes. When the gap between our model and implied odds is meaningful, that's a +EV pick. Every pick is timestamped, graded, and publicly archived, see our complete track record.
Browse all our free tools, see the full Soccer player history, or jump straight to today's live +EV picks.
Soccer Prop Betting Strategy
- Shots on Target (SOT) UNDER has been our strongest soccer market historically, but every pick is graded in public, wins and losses, so judge the live record rather than a headline win rate.
- Avoid all OVER markets in soccer, backtest data shows systematic overprice across leagues.
- Tackles and fouls props have weather-dependent variance; rain games push UNDERs.
- Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks soccer pricing is softer than sportsbooks.
- International matches (UCL, UEL, Conference League) move slower than league play, 5-min advantage here.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best soccer player props to bet?
Shots on Target UNDERs for players in low-xG matchups have been our strongest soccer market, but every pick is graded in public, wins and losses, so judge the live graded record rather than a quoted win rate. Goals OVER for elite forwards (Haaland, Mbappé) at 2.5x+ payouts is our main OVER exception.
Which leagues do you cover?
Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, MLS, Liga MX, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, Süper Lig, Championship, plus UEFA Champions League / Europa League / Conference League.
How does the model handle injuries?
API-Football publishes injury and lineup data ~30-60 minutes before kickoff. Our scanner refreshes every 5 minutes, out players are auto-removed from the prop board.
Why are UNDERs the focus?
Soccer player-prop OVERs underperformed across stat types in our graded results while UNDER-only held up, so we disabled OVER picks system-wide and only run UNDERs. Every pick is graded in public, see the performance page for the current record.
What about MLS and Liga MX?
Both are covered. MLS pricing tends to be softer than European leagues, extra value especially on shots and SOT props.
Also tracking
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