Soccer Player Props
+EV Soccer prop picks across 48 sportsbooks, refreshed every 2 minutes. Every pick graded publicly. Below: today's top picks, all-time performance, and how our model finds the edge.
Today's Top +EV Soccer Props
How We Find +EV Soccer Props
Our soccer model pulls from API-Football (full season stats across 14 leagues including Big 5 + UCL/UEL + MLS + Liga MX), Poisson-based shot/SOT/goals model, and an XGBoost win/loss classifier (AUC 0.781) trained on 685K match records. We compare independent probability against lines from 48 sportsbooks every 2 minutes. When the gap between our model and implied odds is meaningful, that's a +EV pick. Every pick is timestamped, graded, and publicly archived — see our complete track record.
Browse all our free tools, see the full Soccer player history, or jump straight to today's live +EV picks.
Soccer Prop Betting Strategy
- Shots on Target (SOT) UNDER is our highest-conviction soccer market — 70%+ historical win rate.
- Avoid all OVER markets in soccer — backtest data shows systematic overprice across leagues.
- Tackles and fouls props have weather-dependent variance; rain games push UNDERs.
- Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks soccer pricing is softer than sportsbooks.
- International matches (UCL, UEL, Conference League) move slower than league play — 5-min advantage here.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best soccer player props to bet?
Shots on Target UNDERs for players in low-xG matchups have produced our best soccer ROI — over 70% win rate. Goals OVER for elite forwards (Haaland, Mbappé) at 2.5x+ payouts.
Which leagues do you cover?
Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, MLS, Liga MX, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, Süper Lig, Championship, plus UEFA Champions League / Europa League / Conference League.
How does the model handle injuries?
API-Football publishes injury and lineup data ~30-60 minutes before kickoff. Our scanner refreshes every 5 minutes — out players are auto-removed from the prop board.
Why are UNDERs the focus?
Soccer player prop OVERs across all stat types showed −12% ROI in 60-day backtest while UNDER-only delivered +22.6% ROI. We disabled OVER picks system-wide and only run UNDERs.
What about MLS and Liga MX?
Both are covered. MLS pricing tends to be softer than European leagues — extra value especially on shots and SOT props.
Also tracking
See every +EV Soccer pick today
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