World Cup 2026 Player Props, +EV Picks & Model Edges
Our soccer model: 7,571 historical soccer model rows, 65.1% hit rate, a historical, in-sample track record, never a promise. Below: today's World Cup edges on the board, our per-stat record, and how the model finds the gap.
EV% is our modeled edge, not a promised return. Not a sportsbook.
Historical and in-sample. Past results don't guarantee future performance.
World Cup edges on the board
Updated Sep 13, 12:29 AM EDTSoccer Prop Performance by Stat, All-Time Record
| Prop Type | Historical Rows | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 2,848 | 71.7% |
| Shots On Target | 1,658 | 59.0% |
| Passes | 1,308 | 62.0% |
| Fouls | 1,265 | 68.7% |
| Tackles | 313 | 54.0% |
| Goals | 209 | 53.1% |
| Goals+Assists | 112 | 50.9% |
| Dribbles | 108 | 90.7% |
Shots, Fouls and Shots on Target are our highest-volume soccer markets. Every stat is shown honestly, including the thin or negative ones. Historical and in-sample; not a forecast.
How We Find +EV World Cup Props
Each World Cup prop starts from player-level data, recent form weighted toward the most recent matches, opponent and matchup strength, and role context, to build an independent probability for stats like Shots, Shots on Target, and Fouls. We compare that calibrated probability against prices across dozens of sportsbooks every couple of minutes. When our number is meaningfully better than the implied odds, that gap is positive expected value, and only then does a pick surface. Newer fully tracked results and older model history stay separate. See results and methodology or browse all our soccer player props.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do you cover World Cup player props?
Yes. Our soccer model runs on World Cup 2026 matches the same way it runs the leagues we cover year-round, Shots, Shots on Target, Fouls, and other high-volume player props. We compare our calibrated probability against prices across dozens of sportsbooks and surface only the props where the math shows positive expected value (+EV). Coverage depends on which props the books post for a given match, so volume varies day to day.
Which sportsbooks do these picks come from?
We scan dozens of sportsbooks, including traditional sportsbooks and DFS-style platforms, and price each World Cup prop at the best available number. The book shown on each pick is the one offering the edge at the time it surfaced. Lines move, so always confirm the current price before you bet.
Is this World Cup page free?
This page is free, and the sample of edges shown here is free. It is a small teaser of the broader model output, which evaluates World Cup props using prices across dozens of books. The first week of Pro is $1; current paid feature availability is only represented as live after production-readiness verification.
Do you guarantee winning World Cup picks?
No. EV% is a modeled estimate, not a promised return. Performance separates newer fully tracked results from older historical soccer rows and states the sample and method.
Keep exploring
See every World Cup edge today
The broader board runs World Cup props through our soccer model using prices across dozens of books. Transparent grading, no cherry-picking. EV% is a modeled edge, not a promised return.
21+. Always bet responsibly. Past results don't guarantee future performance. Not a sportsbook.