83,495 picks graded in public — wins and losses

Find the edge.
Audit every pick.

A probability engine that scans 39 books across six sports, identifies mispriced player props, and grades every single pick. No gut calls. No hidden losses.

Already a member? Sign in
54%
Hit Rate · All-Time
+13.1%
ROI · Last 30 Days
39
Books Scanned
W SOC: Lautaro Martínez UNDER 2.5 Shots → 1L TEN: Shintaro Mochizuki UNDER 9.5 Games Won → 20W MLB: Josh Naylor UNDER 1.5 Total Bases → 0W SOC: Gideon Mensah UNDER 1.5 Fouls → 1W MLB: Randy Arozarena UNDER 1.5 Total Bases → 0W SOC: Jefferson Lerma UNDER 1.5 Fouls → 1W MLB: Chase Meidroth UNDER 1.5 Total Bases → 1L MLB: Daylen Lile UNDER 1.5 Total Bases → 10L MLB: Mookie Betts OVER 0.5 HR 0.5 Home Runs → 0W MLB: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. UNDER 1.5 Total Bases → 1L MLB: Andy Pages OVER 0.5 HR 0.5 Home Runs → 0W SOC: Lautaro Martínez UNDER 2.5 Shots → 1L TEN: Shintaro Mochizuki UNDER 9.5 Games Won → 20W MLB: Josh Naylor UNDER 1.5 Total Bases → 0W SOC: Gideon Mensah UNDER 1.5 Fouls → 1W MLB: Randy Arozarena UNDER 1.5 Total Bases → 0W SOC: Jefferson Lerma UNDER 1.5 Fouls → 1W MLB: Chase Meidroth UNDER 1.5 Total Bases → 1L MLB: Daylen Lile UNDER 1.5 Total Bases → 10L MLB: Mookie Betts OVER 0.5 HR 0.5 Home Runs → 0W MLB: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. UNDER 1.5 Total Bases → 1L MLB: Andy Pages OVER 0.5 HR 0.5 Home Runs → 0
+13.1%
ROI · Last 30 Days
+0%
ROI · All-Time

Historical, in-sample graded results at true per-pick payouts — every pick public, wins and losses both. Past results don't guarantee future performance. Always bet responsibly.

Three Steps to +EV

We handle the math. You place the bets.

Step 01

We Scan

Every 2 minutes, we pull live player props from 39 books -- so you see edges the moment they appear, not after they're gone.

Step 02

We Calculate

Sport-specific probability models anchored to the sharpest lines in the market. If there's real edge, we find it. If there isn't, we don't show it.

Step 03

You Decide

Every pick is timestamped, archived, and graded against real results — wins and losses.

The Full Suite

One subscription. Ten tools.

Most platforms give you lines. We give you an edge engine — prediction models, market intelligence, inefficiency scanners, and execution tools. Founding members get all of it, forever.

Core

Prediction Engine

Sport-specific ML models (XGBoost + Poisson GLMs) across NBA, NHL, MLB, Soccer, Tennis. Retrained weekly on fresh data.

Intelligence

Sharp Money

Track what respected money is hammering. Tier-graded by historical accuracy, with every pick graded and published.

Intelligence

Insider Tracker

Polymarket + Kalshi market signals, graded against settlement and published — wins and losses.

Specialty

MLB Alt Markets

NRFI/YRFI + K Ladders + HR picks from dedicated models. Markets the big tools don't touch.

Market

Arbitrage Scanner

Near-risk-free arbitrage across books + prediction markets. Fee-aware, quality-tiered, with the locked spread shown. Execution risk applies.

Market

Middles

1,500+ live middles with A/B/C grades. Every middle auto-graded in public — hits and misses both, so you see the real record.

Market

Prediction Markets

Live Kalshi + Polymarket edges next to the sportsbook price — spot where the event markets disagree with the books. Opportunities graded in public.

Execution

Slip Builder

Build slips with pairwise correlation penalties + Monte Carlo simulation. Stop accidentally sizing correlated plays.

Execution

Exposure / Bankroll

Track your exposure across books, stats, and games. Know what you're actually risking at any given moment.

Discovery

Prop Trends

Which prop types and books are hot right now, how each is trending (3d vs 30d), and the status of every model pattern. Ride the hot ones, skip the cold.

Plus the Dashboard, Performance page, Top Props leaderboard, Blog, and every tool shipped in Phase 2.

Six Sports. NFL at Launch.

Dedicated models per sport — retrained weekly on fresh data, not a one-size-fits-all algorithm.

NBA
Off-season
55%
All-time win rate (graded)
25209-20594+2.1% ROI
NHL
Off-season
61.5%
All-time win rate (graded)
5803-3635+15% ROI
MLB
Live
51.6%
All-time win rate (graded)
4924-4619+0.8% ROI
Soccer
Live
66%
All-time win rate (graded)
3812-1966+24.7% ROI
Tennis
Live
52%
All-time win rate (graded)
3920-3621-0.1% ROI
NFLAug 2026
---
Reactivating for the season
GolfBeta
---
DataGolf model in staging

Recent Picks

Every pick graded. Every result public.

Latest Graded Picks
Live
Lautaro Martínez
Shots2.5UNDER1
Shintaro Mochizuki
Games Won9.5UNDER20
Josh Naylor
Total Bases1.5UNDER0
Gideon Mensah
Fouls1.5UNDER1
Randy Arozarena
Total Bases1.5UNDER0
Jefferson Lerma
Fouls1.5UNDER1
Chase Meidroth
Total Bases1.5UNDER1
Daylen Lile
Total Bases1.5UNDER10
Mookie Betts
Home Runs0.5OVER 0.5 HR0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Total Bases1.5UNDER1
Andy Pages
Home Runs0.5OVER 0.5 HR0

How We Compare

Most tools show you odds. We show you edges.

Feature
Turtle +EV
from $99/mo
OddsJam
$99/mo
PickFinder
$49/mo
OddsShopper
$29/mo
Unabated
$99/mo
AI Probability Engine (6 sports)
Transparent Pick Grading
39 Sportsbooks Scanned
Sharp Money / Whale Tracker
Polymarket + Kalshi Insider Signals
Arbitrage + Middles Scanner
MLB Alt Markets (NRFI, HR, K Ladders)
Slip Builder with Correlation Math
Published Win Rate & ROI (every pick)
Under $100/mo

Not ready to subscribe? Get tomorrow's top picks free.

One short email each morning with today's best edges and the math behind them. No spam — unsubscribe in one click.

Free, no spam. Unsubscribe in 1 click. Resend-powered.

Simple Pricing. Full Access.

One platform. Founding locks in everything, forever.

Turtle Core
$99/mo

The prediction engine, solo.

  • All 6 sports + NFL at launch
  • AI probability on every prop
  • 39 sportsbooks scanned
  • Slip Builder with correlation math
  • Top Props leaderboard
  • Full performance transparency
Most Popular
Turtle Pro
$149/mo

Every tool we ship. Full platform.

  • All 6 sports + NFL at launch
  • AI probability on every prop
  • 39 sportsbooks scanned
  • Sharp Money whale tracker
  • Polymarket + Kalshi insider signals
  • Arb + Middles scanner
  • MLB Alt Markets (NRFI, HR, K Ladders)
  • Slip Builder with correlation math
  • Exposure + bankroll dashboard
  • Top Props leaderboard
  • Full performance transparency
Limited · 50 Seats
Turtle Founding
$99/mo

Pro features at Core price — locked for life.

44 of 50 seats left6/50
  • Everything in Turtle Pro — forever
  • Price locked for life (never increases)
  • Every future tool we ship — included
  • NFL when it launches Aug 2026 — included
  • Priority beta access to new products
  • Direct line to the founders

Cancel anytime via Whop. No contracts, no hidden fees. Founding seats never re-open once filled.

Why Turtle Pro: Every pick across six sports is timestamped before the game and graded against the box score after — wins and losses, nothing hidden. Pro covers all active sports (NFL at launch), scans 39 books, and adds the Arbitrage and Middles scanners plus the Insider tracker. Founding Members get everything Turtle offers — today and every tool we add as we grow — at the Core price, locked in forever. Fifty seats total. Never re-opens.

Built Different

Every model call graded in public — wins and losses.

Every Pick Graded

Multi-layer verification cascade. Our full record is public -- wins and losses.

2-Minute Refresh

Lines move fast. Our scraper runs every 120 seconds across all 39 books.

Calibrated Models

Sport-specific probability calibration. Not generic. Backtested and retrained weekly.

Edge Sizing

We show predicted edge as a percentage so you can size bets by confidence.

Frequently Asked Questions

We build sport-specific statistical models using player game logs, advanced metrics (xG, Statcast, DVP), and situational factors. Our calibration functions compute true probabilities for every player prop, then compare against the lines posted by 39 sportsbooks. Only edges where our calculated probability exceeds the implied odds surface on the platform.

Positive expected value (+EV) means a bet where the true probability of winning is higher than what the sportsbook's odds imply. If a book gives you +100 odds (50% implied), but our model says the true probability is 57%, that's a +EV pick. The idea is that betting +EV consistently should win over a large sample — but single nights are variance, and an edge is never guaranteed. That's exactly why we grade every pick in public, wins and losses, so you can judge the rolling record instead of a promise.

Every prediction is graded against real results against live sports data and official game logs, reconciled nightly. Our full record — wins, losses, and ROI — is published in public.

We scan 39 books including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Bet365, Underdog Fantasy, PrizePicks, ParlayPlay, Sleeper, Fliff, and many more. For DFS-style books we capture actual variable payouts per prop for accurate edge calculations.

Our scraper runs every 2 minutes across all sportsbooks, and predictions refresh every 5 minutes. You see picks as soon as a +EV opportunity appears, and stale lines are automatically removed.

Most tools show you odds. We give you a full toolkit in one subscription: an AI prediction model for 6 sports, Sharp Money tracker (what respected money is hammering), Polymarket+Kalshi insider signals, MLB Alt Markets (NRFI/HR/K Ladders), Arb + Middles scanners, Slip Builder with correlation math, Exposure dashboard, and Top Props leaderboard. Plus every pick is graded and published publicly.

The full toolset: the prediction engine, Sharp Money whale tracker, Insider Tracker (Polymarket + Kalshi signals), MLB Alt Markets (NRFI/YRFI + K Ladders + HR picks), Arbitrage Scanner, Middles, Slip Builder with correlation math + Monte Carlo, Exposure / bankroll dashboard, Top Props leaderboard, public Performance page, and the Blog. Core is the +EV feed and Sharp Money; Pro adds the edge terminal (Arbitrage, Middles, Insider) plus deeper research and alerts. Founding members get all of it — and every tool we add as we grow — locked in forever at the Core price.

Turtle Founding is capped at 50 seats (live count shown on the pricing card). Founding Members get the full Turtle Pro toolset for $99/mo (Core pricing, Pro access) and that rate is locked for life. Every future tool we ship — including NFL in August 2026 — is included at no extra cost. Once the 50 seats are full, this tier never re-opens; new members pay $149/mo for Pro.

Yes. Your subscription is managed through Whop. Cancel anytime with one click -- no contracts, no cancellation fees, no hoops to jump through.

Limited Availability

Only 44 Founding seats left.

Turtle Founding is capped at 50 seats — 6 already taken. Founding Members get everything Turtle offers — today and every tool we add as we grow — for $99/mo, locked in forever. Sharp Money, Insider Tracker, Arb, Middles, Slip Builder, Alt Markets, Exposure, Top Props, the prediction engine, NFL at launch — plus whatever we build next, at no extra cost, for as long as you stay. When the 50 seats are full, the tier closes for good. Pro goes to $149/mo for everyone else.

Audit Every Edge Today

Start a 7-day free trial, see every graded pick — wins and losses — and decide for yourself. Cancel anytime.

Already a member? Sign in

Founding $99/mo locked for life · Core $99 · Pro $149 · Cancel anytime