A curated free preview of today’s modeled player props with positive expected value. We price every prop against supported sportsbooks, DFS apps and prediction markets, and show the sports with live inventory right now. The full board is on the paid platform.
Edge compares Turtle’s modeled win probability with the price available when this pick was evaluated. It is not realized profit and not a guaranteed return. The over/under side is part of the paid board.
⚾MLB Player Props Today (2)
Today’s +EV MLB player prop picks, hits, total bases, home runs, fed by Statcast (exit velo, barrel rate), FanGraphs splits, weather, and park factors split by handedness.
Player
Market
Pick
Model
Prob
Edge
Matchup
Tommy Edman
Total Bases
🔒Line 1.5
1.81
62.2%
+10.8%
CIN @ LAD · Sep 9, 10:10 PM
Will Smith
Total Bases
🔒Line 1.5
1.92
62.8%
+9.9%
CIN @ LAD · Sep 9, 10:10 PM
🎾Tennis Player Props Today (1)
Today’s ATP and WTA tour-level tennis props, Games Won, 1st Set Games, Aces, using surface-specific historical data, head-to-head, and adaptive per-player sigma.
Player
Market
Pick
Model
Prob
Edge
Matchup
Pavel Kotov vs Alexis Galarneau
Tiebreaks
🔒Line 0.5
0.49
56.5%
+10.2%
Alexis Galarneau vs Pavel Kotov · Sep 10, 9:00 PM
How these picks work
Every sport gets a dedicated model: NBA runs an XGBoost win/loss classifier + weighted moving averages, NHL uses MoneyPuck xG, MLB combines Statcast exit velo + barrel% + park factor, Soccer runs a Poisson + API-Football-enriched feature set, Tennis uses adaptive per-player sigma. Every prediction is then calibrated against our own graded history, and each sport carries its own confidence ceiling so a model can never claim more certainty than its record supports.
Edge is the expected value on a 1-unit stake at the price offered versus our modeled fair probability. A positive edge means we think the market is mispricing that player’s projection. It describes the price at evaluation time, not a realized or promised return, and prices move.
Prices come from supported sportsbooks, DFS apps and prediction markets. These are different products: a DFS entry usually needs a valid multi-pick lineup, and a prediction-market contract fills against available liquidity. The paid board names the venue for every pick.
Frequently asked questions
What is a +EV player prop?+
A player prop where your modeled true probability multiplied by the payout exceeds 1. If a model says LeBron James has a 55% chance to go over 27.5 points and the payout is 1.91 decimal, EV = 0.55 × 1.91 − 1 = +5.05%. Long-term, +EV bets win.
How do you find +EV player props?+
You need an independent probability model, historical splits, matchup adjustments, pace/usage, weather (MLB), defense vs position. The model output is compared to no-vig fair odds to find mispriced lines. The Turtle +EV platform automates this across supported sportsbooks, DFS apps and prediction markets.
Which sports have the most +EV opportunities?+
It varies by season and by market. Basketball and hockey props move slowest in season, MLB strikeout and home run props are pitcher-dependent, and soccer shots-on-target markets price loosely. The sports listed above are the ones with live inventory today; the rest return when their seasons do.
How often is this preview updated?+
The preview and paid board expose their current freshness state. Market availability can change throughout the day.
Why is this just a preview?+
The full live board is the core of the paid Turtle +EV product. The free preview shows you the type of edges our model finds without giving away the entire daily slate.
Calculators are free. The Turtle +EV picks platform runs every prop through a sport-specific model and ranks the ones where the line is mispriced. MLB · Soccer · Tennis · WNBA. Dozens of books.