The public record
93,338
picks graded, wins and losses
Across every tool. In-sample, nothing hidden.
9
tools
5
live +ROI records
Daily
updated

Honest scorecard

Tap a tool for the full record
ToolGradedWin rateResultStatus
DFS Player Props
In-sample. Includes off-season NBA/NHL.
64,908
graded today
56.3%+5.5% ROI
ROI
Live · graded
Sportsbook Picks
Best-available odds across books; single-book reality is lower. CLV not yet wired.
19,760
graded today
53.7%+4.9% ROI
ROI (best odds)
Live · graded
Sharp Money
Published record since 2026-06-10, deduped to one pick per game, longshots fenced. What was actually sent to Discord — no tier filter. Past results don't guarantee future.
1,486
graded today
53.1%+2.5% ROI
ROI (published core)
Profitable
First-Inning NRFI / YRFI
Win-rate only — no payout in the ledger, so no ROI is claimed.
258
5d ago
57.8%58% win rate
Win rate
Live · graded
Arbitrage
Distinct realizable opportunities (re-detections deduped; palpable-error/>9% rows excluded). Locked spread guaranteed only if both legs fill.
3,197
graded today
+1.5% avg spread
Avg locked spread
Live · graded
Home Run Model
Overconfident at long odds — not +EV as priced. Recalibrating.
1,103
19d ago
16.0%-12% ROI
ROI
Not +EV
Pitcher Strikeouts
Losing as displayed; claimed edge is anti-correlated with outcome.
564
graded today
50.5%-3% ROI
ROI
Not +EV
Middles
Distinct opportunities; legs move before both fill. Discovery tool, net-negative.
00.0%0.0% ROI
ROI
Not +EV
Prediction-Market Edge
Paper-traded. Clean cohort only: priced >= 0.40 and locked pre-game (2062 graded). Realized -1.01% ROI — a 66.2% win rate at these prices needs 66.6% just to break even after fees. The lifetime number you may have seen was a longshot artifact from a price band the board no longer surfaces, plus rows locked in-play before the 2026-07-06 clock fix. No proven edge yet.
2,062
3d ago
66.2%Experimental
Experimental
Experimental

Every pick graded — wins and losses. Historical and in-sample; past results don't guarantee future performance. 21+.

How we grade

Every pick, win or loss
Picks are timestamped before the game and graded against the box score. Losses stay on the record, we never delete a miss.
Honest math
ROI is payout-aware and de-duped to one row per prop. Where a number is best-case (line-shopped) or modeled, we say so.
Losers shown as losers
Tools that aren’t profitable yet live in “Still Proving”, in red. Transparency is the product, not a tagline.
In-sample, stated plainly
These are historical results, not a promise. Past performance doesn’t guarantee the future. 21+.
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Frequently asked questions

Does Turtle +EV show its losing picks?

Yes. Every pick is graded in public, wins and losses, and nothing is deleted. The full record on this page is sortable by sport, tool, and book.

How many picks has Turtle +EV graded?

More than 82,000 player-prop model calls, each graded against the official box score and published here.

Is the record audited?

It is public and checkable, every graded pick lists the player, line, side, and the real result against the box score, so anyone can verify it independently.

Does a good record guarantee future profit?

No. Past results never guarantee future performance. The value is a transparent, auditable process and tools, not a promise. 21+.

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